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Counting Cards: How to Cheat At Blackjack

I don’t gamble much. I’ve got this boring kind of luck that let’s me gamble for a really long time on not much money, without ever winning big.

For example, when my wife was very pregnant with our first monster, we took a trip to visit my parents. It’s a 2 hour drive, and she needed a break halfway there. In the truck stop, we bought $5 worth of scratch-offs to pass some time. We turned in the winning tickets for more scratch-offs. And again. And again. Two hours later, we were out of winners, but had never accumulated more than $10.

Another time, we went to the casino to play slots. It took nearly 8 hours to spend $20. That sounds boring, but we had good conversation while we were playing.

I’ve never had a big win or a big loss from gambling, so I’ve always been kind of bored with the idea.

Now, cheating at blackjack, that’s a different matter. Pulling one over on the casino without getting caught…they make movies about that kind of stuff.

To be clear: counting cards in your head isn’t cheating. Legally, the worst that can happen is you can be asked to leave. To get a Hollywood-I-cheated-the-casino-and-got-caught-and-beat-by-the-mob kind of beating, you need to win a lot.

A lot.

To get started, there are a few things you need to know. One of those things is how to play blackjack, but I’m not going to get into the basics. If you don’t know how to hit, stand, or count to 21 without taking your clothes off, this guide may be too advanced for you. Come back later.

Super Basic Strategy

You don’t need to count cards to use this strategy. You will do better than most players if you follow along.

1. The dealer must hit, or take another card, if he has 16 points. If he has 17, he stands.

2. The hole card–the card you can’t see–is always worth 10. Of course, it’s not, but for the purposes of your strategy, assume it is.

That means, when the dealer is showing a 2, you’ll assume he’s got 12 points and will hit. If he’s showing a 7, you’ll assume he’s going to stand. If he’s showing an 8, your goal is to beat 18, not push for 21.

That’s it. If you do that, you’ll come within a couple of points of even odds against the house. Google “blackjack basic strategy” if you want to improve this.

Even odds isn’t good enough.

Card Counting

Counting cards sounds tough. Rain Man tough.

It’s not, but you’ll want to practice at home a bit before you try it in the really real world.

The rules are simple:

1. Cards 2-6 are worth 1 point.

2. The 10, jack, queen, king, and ace are worth -1.

3. For every card that is played, keep track of that score. This is a running score across multiple hands until the deck is replaced or shuffled, so don’t stop at a new deal.

4. Divide the running score by the number of decks remaining in the shoe. If there are approximated 150 cards in the dealer-thingy, that’s 3 decks, so divide by 3. If your running score is 18, that means the number your playing against is 6. If the casino is using a continuous-shuffling thingy, forget counting the cards.

That’s it. You’re never adding or subtracting more than a one, and you’re doing that against a number that tends to stay pretty low.

How do you use that, you ask? Easy.

When the score is up, bet higher. If it’s low or negative, bet lower. The higher the number, the higher your bets. If you’ve got a 5, a 6, or more, bet as much as you are comfortable with. If your playing score is low or negative, bet close to the table minimum.

Why does this work?

A higher score indicates that the main assumption of the super basic strategy is more likely to be true. When you’ve got a score of 10, you know a lot of lower-value cards have already hit the table, so it’s safer to assume that the dealer’s card is worth 10.

You don’t change anything about the way you play each hand, you just change the way you bet each hand. Counting cards doesn’t tell you specifically what’s going to happen during each hand, it just tackles the statistics of the game. It moves the odds in your favor, by up to 2 or 3 percent. Over one hand, this won’t help, so don’t sweat losing a hand here and there. Over an entire shoe of hands, you should be able to steadily win more than you lose.

And, as Brian Brushwood says, in the course of your life, very few things make a cooler story than getting kicked out of a casino for counting cards.

Do you play in casinos? Ever tried to cheat?

Selling Your Car

Finance

: English: Jalopy car in Joshua Tree National Park in Hidden Valley Campground (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

When it’s time to replace your car, most people focus on the new car, instead of the old, but that is ignoring real money. Your old car–unless it has disintegrated–still has value. Sometimes, it’s just time to ask yourself, “When should I sell my car?”

When you’re looking to sell your car (like with We Will Buy Your Car), you generally have several options:

Tow & crush. If your car has been wrecked, doesn’t run, or is just old and beat up, you may be stuck with calling a junkyard and accepting $50 for them to pick up your car and crush it for scrap.
Trade it in. This is probably the least hassle, but–other than #1–doesn’t pay well. Dealerships are willing to pay something under what they will get at a wholesale auction, which is quite a bit less than the blue book value.
Sell it yourself. Now you’re thinking, “He’s going to buy my car! Oh, bother.” It can be a pain, but it’s also the best way to get a decent price for your wheels.

When you sell your car, there are a few things to keep in mind, much like when you sell something on Craigslist.

Don’t be alone. There are bad people in the world, but they don’t like witnesses. Bad things are much less likely to happen if you have company.
Know your price. Specifically, know three price: your dream price, the price that would make you happy, and the absolute lowest price you are willing to accept. Make sure you figure these numbers out ahead of time. Know what you are comfortable with before it comes time to close the deal.
Check IDs. The buyer is going to want to test-drive your car. That’s fine, but you want to make sure you know who is driving off in your car. “Officer, Sumdood took my car. He was wearing jeans.” That won’t get your car back.
Clean it up. Get the car detailed before you show it to a potential buyer. A sparkling-clean car will almost always bring in a few hundred extra dollars. It’s well worth the expense.

Following this plan should make the sale go as smoothly as possible and bring you the most possible money.

Readers, what have you done to dispose of an old car?

This is a sponsored post written to provide some insight into the world of used car retail.

Anna Chapman and Edward Snowden: How to afford a long-distance romance?

Celebrities

100703anna_chapman (Photo credit: alanconnor)

Recently Russian spy Anna Chapman tweeted a proposal to fellow spy Edward Snowden, as in a marriage proposal. News reports covering the Internet event report that Chapman would not reveal whether she was serious but asked reporters to use their imaginations. So it is yet to be seen whether there will be spy marriage ahead for the two notorious leakers. What is true, however, is that no nuptials can take place at the moment, even if Anna Chapman were serious and Edward Snowden. That is because the United States has revoked Snowden’s U.S. passport, and marriage ceremonies cannot take place in the airport where Snowden is trying to buy time. So how can Chapman and Snowden afford a long-distance relationship? Follow this quick guide of tips for helping the spies survive what could be a long road ahead!

Finding Deals

Anna Chapman has the most mobility right now, so she should be looking out for cheap flights to where Snowden is hiding out. A long-distance relationship can be expensive, so that is why finding deals on air travel is key. She can drop into the airport for a quick rendevouz. Why not?

Saving Money

These two potential spy lovers and super team need to save their money at every turn. Hiding out in secrete is costly, so they should create a special account that they both can add to for getaway and meeting expenses. Meeting at the airport is going to get old after a while, so they need to find a safe space where they can enjoy one another and sustain their relationship. Long-distance relationships are known for their difficulty because a couple spend so much time trying to reconnect every time they see one another.

Pick Your Fights

Long-distance relationships have little room for petty fighting. You see each other so infrequently that you have to cherish the time you have together. Instead of talking spy business, Anna Chapman and Edward Snowden should make sure they are focusing on each other by getting to know each other and focusing on the small things that make them happy together. Petty fighting will destroy a long-distance relationship. Chapman and Snowden should part each meeting feeling good about the other instead of feeling frustrated.

Kiss and Makeup

The key to long-distance relationships is always to kiss and makeup before leaving. No matter what the spies face together or apart, they cannot let their professions and media scrutiny come between them. Instead, they need to focus on their love and passion. Make sure to share a passionate kiss before leaving each meeting so that the memory of love and admiration is fresh on the mind. With a little effort in the romance department, Chapman and Snowden will be well on their way to creating harmony in their relationship. Moving from shallow levels to more deeper levels, however, is going to take time.

Actions Have Consequences

Finance, Parenting

: Image by reidmix via Flickr

Six months ago, my laptop quit charging. This particular model has a history of having the power jack come loose inside the laptop, so I ordered the part and waited. When it came, I disassembled the computer, carefully tracking where each screw went. I installed the part, the put it back together, with only a few extra pieces.

It didn’t work.

After spending the money and doing the work, I tested the external power cord. I could have saved myself a few hours of work if I would have done that first. It was trash, so I ordered a new one. That’s time and money down the drain due to my poor research.

As an adult, I know that I am responsible for my actions, even if the consequences aren’t readily apparent. If I tap another car in a parking lot, I am going to have to pay for the damages, even if I didn’t see the car. This has manifested itself in credit card statements I didn’t read, speed limits signs I didn’t notice(or ignored!), and–on occasion–my wife and I not communicating about how much money we’ve spent.

Kids have a much harder time grasping that concept.

My son enjoys playing games online. Some of the games are multiplayer games he plays online with his friends, others are flash games he plays at home while his friends watch. They like to take the laptop into the dining room where they can play without being in the way. A small herd of 10 and 11 year old kids hopping around expensive electronics can’t be a good idea.

Yesterday, we saw that the power cord was fraying at the computer end from being dragged all over the house and jerked by kids tripping on the cord. We got six months of life out of the cord because of kids who should have known better not acting appropriately around the cord and the computer. Not happy.

My son got grounded for a week and honored with the privilege of replacing the cord. Now he isn’t happy, but he understands that he needs to pay for the damage he causes, even if he didn’t know that what he was doing could cause the damage. If it was something he would have had no way of knowing, there would have been no punishment, but he should have known not to jerk on the cord of leave it where it can be tripped over.

What do you think?

3 Things You Need to Know About Homeowner’s Insurance

Finance

: Image by ecstaticist via Flickr

If you are a homeowner, you need homeowner’s insurance. Period. Protecting what is mostly likely the biggest investment of your life with a relatively small monthly payment is so important, that, if you disagree, I’m afraid we are so fundamentally opposed on the most basic elements of personal finance that nothing I say will register with you.

If, however, you have homeowner’s insurance, or–through some innocent lapse–need homeowner’s insurance and you just want some more information, welcome!

The basic principle of insurance is simple. You bet against the insurance company that you or your property are going to get hurt. If you’re right, you win whatever your policy limit is. If you’re wrong, the insurance company cleans up with your monthly premium. Insurance is gambling that something bad will happen to you. If you lose, you win!

Now, there are some things about homeowner’s insurance that you may not realize.

1. Homeowner’s insurance will not protect you against a flood. For that you need flood insurance. The easiest way to tell which policy covers water damage is to see if the water touched the ground before your house. An overflowing river, or heavy rain that seeps through the ground and your foundation are both considered flooding. On the other hand, hail breaking your windows and allowing the rain in or a broken pipe are both generally covered by your homeowner’s policy.

Do you need flood insurance? I would say that, if you live on the coast below sea level, you should have flood insurance. If you’re on a flood plain, you need flood insurance. If you’re not sure, use the handy tool at http://www.floodsmart.gov to rate your risk and get an estimate on premium costs. My home is in moderate-to-low risk of flooding, so full coverage starts at $120.

2. You can negotiate an insurance claim. When you have an insurance adjuster inspecting your home after you file a claim, most of the time they will lowball you. Generous adjusters don’t get brought in for the next round of claims. If you know the replacement costs are higher than they are offering, or even if you aren’t sure, don’t sign! Once you sign, you are locked into a contract with the insurance company. Take your time and do your research. Get a contractor out to give you a damage estimate, if you can.

3. Your deductible is too low. If you’ve built up an emergency fund, you can safely boost your deductible to a sizable percentage of that fund and save yourself a bunch of money. When we got our emergency fund up to about $2000, we raised our deductible from $500 to $1000 and saved a couple of hundred dollars per year. That change pays for itself every 2 years we don’t have a claim. I absolutely wouldn’t recommend this if you don’t have the money to cover your deductible, but, if you do, it can be a great money-saver.

Bonus tip: If you get angry that your homeowner’s insurance doesn’t cover flooding, even if you haven’t had to deal with a flood, and you cancel your insurance out of spite, and you subsequently have a ton of hail damage, your insurance company won’t cover the crap that happened during the window where you weren’t their customer.

Are you one of the misguided masses who prefer to trust their home to fate?

Do you have an insurance horror story?

The Story of Sammy

Business

As I’ve mentioned, we’re cleaning out my mother-in-law’s house. She was a hoarder who passed away a couple of months ago. As of yesterday, we’ve filled two 30-yard dumpsters. For perspective, that’s big enough to park our F150.

I’m not here to talk about that, or the 20 year old can of green beans that burst and ran down my leg on Saturday.

Last month, we put a recliner out on the curb with a free sign. A few minutes later, a couple of guys stopped by and grabbed it.

Last week, one of the guys–I’ll call him Sammy–stopped by and left a note on the windshield of one of our inherited cars, asking about buying it.

Long story short, we sold him two cars. One hadn’t been run in a year or two, and one had been parked for almost 20 years. We signed this titles and let him take the cars while he was still $50 short of the purchase price. This isn’t a story about the cars.

It’s a story about Sammy.

Sammy doesn’t have a lot of money. He’s living off of a monthly check from an old injury, and his fiancee works part-time. They’re living in Section 8 housing, and consistently have more month than money. When he was younger, he made some decisions that make some forms of employment difficult now.

On Friday, Sammy stopped by. He was supposed to give us $50, but said that getting one of the cars running had cost more than expected, and it still had a problem that was keeping it from being safe on the road. He asked about an extension.

No problem.

Then, he looked around my mother-in-law’s overgrown yard and asked if he could help. After we negotiated the price, he asked if he could a) borrow our tools for the work, and b) get a ride Saturday morning.

I am a nice guy.

Saturday, I was planning to pick him up, then drive downtown to pick up a friend who has been living at the Salvation Army since moving to the area. His friend was so excited about the work, he hopped on a bus at 6am and got to Sammy’s house.

When I got there, Sammy also had a teenager he was mentoring. He told me that his dream was to start a lawn-care business with his friend, so they can put kids to work and help them turn into productive citizens. Idle, broke, and bored teenagers are a recipe for disaster. Teenagers who grow into men not believing they have a chance to change their future are worse.

I dropped them off and went to have a chat with my wife.

We’re far from rich but, at the moment, we are fairly flush. We’ve found some cash, and a there is a bit of life insurance money. Most of that will be going into remodeling the house, but we have a bit extra. If we can take a few hundred dollars, and help launch Sammy into a business that will help him, his family, and a circle of kids with few prospects, I think it’s the right thing to do.

When I told Sammy what we were considering, he started to break down. It was a truly emotional experience for him to know that somebody was willing to take a chance on him.

I told him to put together plan. I want to know what it would take for him to get started. Hopefully, he’s serious enough to do that. I’d like to help.

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