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Thug-cenomics

Recently, a friend of mine told me about a friend of his who was attacked by a flash mob. This was a negative flash mob, not the fun kind.

She was walking down the street with her phone in her hand when around a dozen thugs surrounded her, knocked her down, and stole her phone before running off.

With me being the person I am with the hobbies and side-hustles I have, certain things came to mind.

This is why standard capacity magazines should never be outlawed. Sometimes, a six-shot revolver just isn’t enough.
Before anyone complains about #1, when you are beaten to the ground by a pack of violent thugs, the length of your life is up to them, not you. They are the problem.
Walking down the street while talking on your cell phone is not the best way to stay aware of your surroundings. Would she have been able to get away if she had been paying more attention to the thugs on the corner than her conversation? I have no idea, but it’s certain that talking on a cell phone is a distraction.
Walking down the street with an expensive gadget in your hand is asking for trouble.
What were these thugs thinking? Even a $500 cell phone turns into a $50 mp3 player the moment the victim gets to a real phone to call the cell phone company. That’s a generous $50 payout. With 12 people, that’s means everyone gets $4.10 as their share. The federal poverty level is just under $12,000 per year, which means they would have to do this 8 times a day, just to get to barely enough money to survive.
In Minnesota, this is, at a minimum, 3rd degree assault, which carries a possible 5 year sentence and $10,000 fine. That’s 8 public attempts to throw away 5 years of their lives, every day. How can they consider this a good risk.

It was pointed out to me that this thuggery is probably made possible by direct government sponsorship, in the form of welfare checks, so this is probably just a way to pass the time. Somebody should tell those brutes that welfare checks stop when you’re in prison.

So I’m considering launching a basic economics class for thugs and street rats. I want to teach them how to do a risk assessment by comparing the level of loot to the possible outcomes of getting caught.

Possible test questions include:

I could stab that guy for the $10 in his wallet, but if I get caught, I’m facing 40 years in prison. Should I do it?
My flash mob makes $50 per phone we steal from defenseless women. Would my buddies rat me out to avoid 5 years of hard time, and do I consider that worth $4?
Meth makes the faces of my customers dissolve from the inside before killing them. Is it possible to build a sustainable business based on slowly killing my customers? What marketing skills do I need to develop to replace the natural attrition of poisoning my customers?
Meth labs explode. Is it better to hire my own junkies, or should I outsource that risk and take a smaller profit margin?
This is a shall issue carry permit state. There are nearly 100,000 carry permit holders here. That’s 1.87% of the total population and 2.6% of the adult population. Statistically, how many people can my friends and I jump before getting justifiably shot? Is that number times the $4 profit considered a good return on investment? What would the ROI have to be to make this a worthwhile career choice?

Anybody know any violent thugs willing to beta test my new class offering?

Delayed Gratification, Take II

Finance, Life

English: Zach Galifianakis as Alan from "... — English: Zach Galifianakis as Alan from "The Hangover" (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

How much would you pay for a kiss from the world’s sexiest celebrity?

That was the focus of a recent study that I can’t find today. There is no celebrity waiting in the wings to deliver the drool, and the study doesn’t name which celebrity it is. That’s an exercise for the reader.

This was a study into how we value nice things.

The fascinating part of the study is that people would be willing to pay more to get the kiss in 3 days than they would to get the tongue slipped immediately.

Anticipation adds value.

Instant gratification actually causes us to devalue the object of our desire.

This goes well beyond “Will you respect me in the morning?”

The last time I talked about delayed gratification, it was in the context of my kids. That still holds true. Kids don’t value the things that are handed to them.

The surprising–and disturbing–bit is that adults don’t, either. If I run out to the store to buy an iPad the first day I see one, I won’t care about it nearly as much as if I spend a week or two agonizing over the decision.

The delay alone adds to the perceived value. The agony turns the perceived value into gold.

If I spend a month searching for the perfect car, the thrill of the successful hunt adds less value than the time it took to do the hunting.

Here’s my frugal tip for today: Delay your purchases. While it may not actually save you any money, you will feel like you got a much better deal if you wait a few days for something you really want.

Cut Your Business Costs with Eco-Friendly Energy

Business

This is a guest post.

Improving your carbon footprint can fall low on the list of professional priorities for many business owners. Yet, as we all become increasingly aware of the implications of ecological practices, opting to go green is an appropriate business decision.

As suppliers and business to business contractors tailor their products in favour of conservational customs, it is likely that adopting eco-friendly operations within your company will benefit both your books as well as the environment.

By making small, uncomplicated steps, government research proposes that, together, UK businesses could save in the region of £23 billion per annum. This proposed figure suggests that snubbing sustainable efforts is at an economic cost to owners individually, in addition to any ecological expense.

As the importance of your carbon footprint is established, deciding which areas within your company can be conveniently ecologically enhanced is a simple way to get started.

Speak With Your Energy Provider

Many energy providers now offer guidance to their customers surrounding any eco-friendly improvements that could be made.

Business electricity from British Gas comes complete with free energy efficiency advice to help ‘cut down your energy consumption and reduce your electricity bill’. The advantages of this initial consultation are augmented by the ongoing provisions incorporated in all business electricity from British Gas packages.

Select a supplier who is willing to help you and your business reduce the impact of your Climate Change Levy (CCL) and is eager to invest in renewable energy resources.

Say ‘Goodbye’ to Guesstimates

According to research completed by British Gas in 2011 ‘companies typically spend as much as 46 per cent of their energy usage outside of business hours’.

Although it is relatively easy to predict the periods when your business’ energy usage is at its greatest, monitoring your actual consumption may highlight any unexpected wastage.

A facility such as Business Energy Insight™ – available with business electricity from British Gas – does exactly what it says on the tin, giving consumers an awareness of their confirmed energy consumption.

Combined with accurate meter readings from Smart Metering or similar, energy insights eliminate any estimation and uncertainty. Through this perceptiveness, business consumers are able to monitor, measure and model their energy utilisation, saving money and resources.

Don’t Go It Alone

Being unsure of how to go green is one of the reasons many businesses choose to linger with standard systems. As well as expert assistance from energy advisory services, schemes are in place which can structure your steps into the world of energy efficiency.

The IEMA Acorn Scheme presents a progressive profile of six stages for business owners to accomplish. These stages ensure that legal requirements are covered and can be completed over a phased period to fit with other business demands.

On completion of the scheme, an IEMA Acorn Certificate is attained to confirm your businesses compliance with British Standard (BS) 8555. Your details are also entered onto the IEMA Acorn Register.

Organically Positive PR

Every organisation needs their Unique Selling Points. Though your services, products or facilities may speak for themselves, going green is the current way to enrich your business.

Clients and customers want to buy from those they trust and often those who follow an ethical ethos. Choosing to ‘go green’ and consistently demonstrating and delivering ecological practises will verify the concerned culture of your company.

While investing your time into employing eco-friendly systems may not reap instant rewards, the positive connotations surrounding conservation will always ensure that you are ahead of the game when in competition with a company that doesn’t deliver on these principles.

Whether you choose to be officially certified via IEMA Acorn or you simply state your environmental policies on your website and company literature, being ecologically aware can cause an upturn in capital as well as cutting resource costs.

Taking Things Further

When you are hoping to tackle more than the basics and want to do more to aid our environment, there is a myriad of informational services willing to help.

Making this move doesn’t have to cost the earth, business grants are available to help you render these affirmative changes. Check online at www.grantsgreenmachine.com for any that may be applicable for your industry.

Locally, councils may be able to offer either erudition or funds specifically appropriate to your project within your region.

Conservation doesn’t have to be costly; check your books and you may find that going green could profit both your environment and your enterprise.

Counting Cards: How to Cheat At Blackjack

Finance

I don’t gamble much. I’ve got this boring kind of luck that let’s me gamble for a really long time on not much money, without ever winning big.

For example, when my wife was very pregnant with our first monster, we took a trip to visit my parents. It’s a 2 hour drive, and she needed a break halfway there. In the truck stop, we bought $5 worth of scratch-offs to pass some time. We turned in the winning tickets for more scratch-offs. And again. And again. Two hours later, we were out of winners, but had never accumulated more than $10.

Another time, we went to the casino to play slots. It took nearly 8 hours to spend $20. That sounds boring, but we had good conversation while we were playing.

I’ve never had a big win or a big loss from gambling, so I’ve always been kind of bored with the idea.

Now, cheating at blackjack, that’s a different matter. Pulling one over on the casino without getting caught…they make movies about that kind of stuff.

To be clear: counting cards in your head isn’t cheating. Legally, the worst that can happen is you can be asked to leave. To get a Hollywood-I-cheated-the-casino-and-got-caught-and-beat-by-the-mob kind of beating, you need to win a lot.

A lot.

To get started, there are a few things you need to know. One of those things is how to play blackjack, but I’m not going to get into the basics. If you don’t know how to hit, stand, or count to 21 without taking your clothes off, this guide may be too advanced for you. Come back later.

Super Basic Strategy

You don’t need to count cards to use this strategy. You will do better than most players if you follow along.

1. The dealer must hit, or take another card, if he has 16 points. If he has 17, he stands.

2. The hole card–the card you can’t see–is always worth 10. Of course, it’s not, but for the purposes of your strategy, assume it is.

That means, when the dealer is showing a 2, you’ll assume he’s got 12 points and will hit. If he’s showing a 7, you’ll assume he’s going to stand. If he’s showing an 8, your goal is to beat 18, not push for 21.

That’s it. If you do that, you’ll come within a couple of points of even odds against the house. Google “blackjack basic strategy” if you want to improve this.

Even odds isn’t good enough.

Card Counting

Counting cards sounds tough. Rain Man tough.

It’s not, but you’ll want to practice at home a bit before you try it in the really real world.

The rules are simple:

1. Cards 2-6 are worth 1 point.

2. The 10, jack, queen, king, and ace are worth -1.

3. For every card that is played, keep track of that score. This is a running score across multiple hands until the deck is replaced or shuffled, so don’t stop at a new deal.

4. Divide the running score by the number of decks remaining in the shoe. If there are approximated 150 cards in the dealer-thingy, that’s 3 decks, so divide by 3. If your running score is 18, that means the number your playing against is 6. If the casino is using a continuous-shuffling thingy, forget counting the cards.

That’s it. You’re never adding or subtracting more than a one, and you’re doing that against a number that tends to stay pretty low.

How do you use that, you ask? Easy.

When the score is up, bet higher. If it’s low or negative, bet lower. The higher the number, the higher your bets. If you’ve got a 5, a 6, or more, bet as much as you are comfortable with. If your playing score is low or negative, bet close to the table minimum.

Why does this work?

A higher score indicates that the main assumption of the super basic strategy is more likely to be true. When you’ve got a score of 10, you know a lot of lower-value cards have already hit the table, so it’s safer to assume that the dealer’s card is worth 10.

You don’t change anything about the way you play each hand, you just change the way you bet each hand. Counting cards doesn’t tell you specifically what’s going to happen during each hand, it just tackles the statistics of the game. It moves the odds in your favor, by up to 2 or 3 percent. Over one hand, this won’t help, so don’t sweat losing a hand here and there. Over an entire shoe of hands, you should be able to steadily win more than you lose.

And, as Brian Brushwood says, in the course of your life, very few things make a cooler story than getting kicked out of a casino for counting cards.

Do you play in casinos? Ever tried to cheat?

Sammy’s Story, Part 2

Business, Life

For those of you not following along, please read the previous installment of Sammy’s Story. The short version is that we’re thinking about helping someone launch a small business and put “at risk” teenagers and young adults to work.

Sammy called me a couple of days ago. He wanted to discuss working for some of the tools and toys he saw at my mother-in-law’s house and he said he had something to show us. When I picked him up, he had a leather portfolio-style notebook and looked excited.

When we got to the house, he opened up his notebook and handed me two pieces of paper. He said that the idea of being able to launch his business had him so excited that he couldn’t not do anything. He had handed me a landscaping plan and materials list for fixing my mother-in-law’s yard.

We talked about the landscape plan, the business plan, and my wife’s old skateboard, then he had to go. Last night was one of the nights he met “his” kids at a community center.

On the way to the community center, we stopped by his apartment, because he wanted to show me pictures of his kids, and his grandkids, and his foster mother. He told me about his mother dying when he was 13 and his father dropping him with an aunt before disappearing. He was nearly in tears when he asked how some strange white guy could see more in him than his own family did.

He told me about how the money he made working with me had put food on the table of the 14 year old he brought with–a 14 year old who is eager to work more. It paid the weekly rent for one of the other workers and contributed to the rehab of Sammy’s ex. The little bit we’ve done has already touched the lives of dozens of people.

We talked about the way he hates rap. Not because of it’s musical value, but because it’s building a culture that considers women to be nothing but “bitches and hoes” while convincing kids that the only way they can improve their situation is to land a recording contract. Those are the kids he wants to teach to take care of themselves and build their own lives.

Finally, he asked me for my honest opinion about his landscaping plan.

I said, “Sammy, that clinched the deal. I was leaning towards helping you, but now it’s definite. I know you’re serious, so we’re going to make this happen.”

He’s got no idea how to handle taxes, payroll, or insurance, and he has no tools, but we’re going to jump in with both feet.

Mortgage Race

Finance

I spent last week at the Financial Blogger Conference. Saturday night was the big debauch, a 90s themed hip-hop dance party.

Yeah.

Instead, Crystal, Suba, and I hosted a super-secret pizza party to let some of the less “dance party” inclined attendees discuss things like the sanitary concerns of group body shots, sex toys, and horror movies.

During the course of the party, Crystal and I decided to race to pay off our mortgages.

Her balance is just under $25,000.

My balance is $26,266.40.

We both technically have the cash to pay off the balances right now, but we are both dealing with secondary housing issues. She’s building a new one, and I’m updating an inherited house. Neither of us is willing to use our cash reserves to pay off the balance right this moment.

Now that my credit card is paid off, I’ve moved that money to an extra interest-only payment on my mortgage, effectively doubling my mortgage payment, which puts my projected payoff date as about the end of next year. Crystal’s aiming for June, so I’ll have to hurry.

We do have tenants lined up for February, and all of the non-expense related rent will go to the mortgage.

I think I can win.

Update:

I forgot to mention the terms of the bet. The loser has to go visit the winner. When I win, Crystal’s going to fly to Minnesota to experience snow.

Search Results for: three-alternatives-to-a-budget/budget-lesson-part-5/debt-burnout/subscribe-by-email/budget-lesson-part-2/573/budget-lesson-part-3/garage-sale-manual/4-ways-we-keep-wasting-money/consumer-action-handbook

Super Basic Strategy

Card Counting

Why does this work?