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Counting Cards: How to Cheat At Blackjack

I don’t gamble much. I’ve got this boring kind of luck that let’s me gamble for a really long time on not much money, without ever winning big.

For example, when my wife was very pregnant with our first monster, we took a trip to visit my parents. It’s a 2 hour drive, and she needed a break halfway there. In the truck stop, we bought $5 worth of scratch-offs to pass some time. We turned in the winning tickets for more scratch-offs. And again. And again. Two hours later, we were out of winners, but had never accumulated more than $10.

Another time, we went to the casino to play slots. It took nearly 8 hours to spend $20. That sounds boring, but we had good conversation while we were playing.

I’ve never had a big win or a big loss from gambling, so I’ve always been kind of bored with the idea.

Now, cheating at blackjack, that’s a different matter. Pulling one over on the casino without getting caught…they make movies about that kind of stuff.

To be clear: counting cards in your head isn’t cheating. Legally, the worst that can happen is you can be asked to leave. To get a Hollywood-I-cheated-the-casino-and-got-caught-and-beat-by-the-mob kind of beating, you need to win a lot.

A lot.

To get started, there are a few things you need to know. One of those things is how to play blackjack, but I’m not going to get into the basics. If you don’t know how to hit, stand, or count to 21 without taking your clothes off, this guide may be too advanced for you. Come back later.

Super Basic Strategy

You don’t need to count cards to use this strategy. You will do better than most players if you follow along.

1. The dealer must hit, or take another card, if he has 16 points. If he has 17, he stands.

2. The hole card–the card you can’t see–is always worth 10. Of course, it’s not, but for the purposes of your strategy, assume it is.

That means, when the dealer is showing a 2, you’ll assume he’s got 12 points and will hit. If he’s showing a 7, you’ll assume he’s going to stand. If he’s showing an 8, your goal is to beat 18, not push for 21.

That’s it. If you do that, you’ll come within a couple of points of even odds against the house. Google “blackjack basic strategy” if you want to improve this.

Even odds isn’t good enough.

Card Counting

Counting cards sounds tough. Rain Man tough.

It’s not, but you’ll want to practice at home a bit before you try it in the really real world.

The rules are simple:

1. Cards 2-6 are worth 1 point.

2. The 10, jack, queen, king, and ace are worth -1.

3. For every card that is played, keep track of that score. This is a running score across multiple hands until the deck is replaced or shuffled, so don’t stop at a new deal.

4. Divide the running score by the number of decks remaining in the shoe. If there are approximated 150 cards in the dealer-thingy, that’s 3 decks, so divide by 3. If your running score is 18, that means the number your playing against is 6. If the casino is using a continuous-shuffling thingy, forget counting the cards.

That’s it. You’re never adding or subtracting more than a one, and you’re doing that against a number that tends to stay pretty low.

How do you use that, you ask? Easy.

When the score is up, bet higher. If it’s low or negative, bet lower. The higher the number, the higher your bets. If you’ve got a 5, a 6, or more, bet as much as you are comfortable with. If your playing score is low or negative, bet close to the table minimum.

Why does this work?

A higher score indicates that the main assumption of the super basic strategy is more likely to be true. When you’ve got a score of 10, you know a lot of lower-value cards have already hit the table, so it’s safer to assume that the dealer’s card is worth 10.

You don’t change anything about the way you play each hand, you just change the way you bet each hand. Counting cards doesn’t tell you specifically what’s going to happen during each hand, it just tackles the statistics of the game. It moves the odds in your favor, by up to 2 or 3 percent. Over one hand, this won’t help, so don’t sweat losing a hand here and there. Over an entire shoe of hands, you should be able to steadily win more than you lose.

And, as Brian Brushwood says, in the course of your life, very few things make a cooler story than getting kicked out of a casino for counting cards.

Do you play in casinos? Ever tried to cheat?

Bribes vs Rewards

Parenting

What’s the difference between a bribe and a reward? It’s a question that has been heavily on my mind lately. As a father of three–1, 3 and 10–motivating children occupies a lot of my thoughts. Is it possible to motivate a child and reward good behavior without resorting to a bribe?

First, let’s look at the definitions:

bribe n.
1. Something, such as money or a favor, offered or given to a person in a position of trust to influence that person’s views or conduct.
2. Something serving to influence or persuade.

re·ward n.
1. Something given or received in recompense for worthy behavior or in retribution for evil acts.
2. Money offered or given for some special service, such as the return of a lost article or the capture of a criminal.
3. A satisfying return or result; profit.
4. Psychology: The return for performance of a desired behavior; positive reinforcement.

In my mind, a reward is given either as a goal for planned activity or a surprise for good behavior. When used for surprises, it should never be common enough to be expected. If a child is only behaving because she is expecting a reward, it is bribed behavior. She should always be surprised to get the reward.

Using a reward for goal setting is no different than collecting a paycheck. Is my company bribing me to do the work I do every day? They plan to reward or compensate me for the work I plan to do for them. While that my be blurring the line between compensation and rewards, it is valid. My future paycheck is the motivation for my current work.

Bribes, on the other hand, are reward for bad behavior. If my three-year-old is throwing a tantrum in the grocery store and I promise her candy to stop, I have just taught her that the “reward” for a public tantrum is candy. This is reinforcing negative behavior, which will only escalate in the future. If a temper tantrum earns a candy bar, what will she get for hitting Mommy with a frying pan?

The line is further blurred by preemptive bribes. If I tell my children there will be candy when we get home if they behave in the store, it’s still a bribe. Promising dessert if my son cleans his room is a bribe.

So what is the difference?

Bribes reward negative behavior. Whether that is actual behavior or anticipated behavior, bribes provide a reward for it. If you use a treat to end or preempt bad actions, you are bribing your child.

Rewards celebrate positive behavior. A promised treat for going beyond expectations or a surprise for excellent behavior is a reward. It should never become common, or the child will discover that withholding the positive behavior will generate promises of larger rewards. The goal is to reinforce the good to encourage positive behaviors even when there is no likelihood for reward.

For example, my son’s school is part of a reading contest. Over a two month period, if the students read 500 pages outside of school, they will get tickets to a basketball game. If they are in the top three for pages read, they will get personalize jerseys and on-court recognition. My son did the math and was reading enough to surpass the 500 page goal, but not enough to get into the top three. I offered a prize if he made it to 2500 pages. In my opinion, that’s a reward. He was already going beyond the requirement. I have provided motivation to push himself beyond what he thinks he can do. That’s positive reinforcement of good behavior.

On the other hand, when my eight-year-old was refusing to eat dinner, we offered a cookie for dessert if she ate well. That’s reinforcing negative behavior by giving a reward for misbehaving. A bribe.

Rewards are positive responses to positive behavior to motivate future good behavior. Bribes are rewards for negative behavior, real or anticipated, that only serve to encourage more bad behavior in the future.

Selling Your Car

Finance

: English: Jalopy car in Joshua Tree National Park in Hidden Valley Campground (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

When it’s time to replace your car, most people focus on the new car, instead of the old, but that is ignoring real money. Your old car–unless it has disintegrated–still has value. Sometimes, it’s just time to ask yourself, “When should I sell my car?”

When you’re looking to sell your car (like with We Will Buy Your Car), you generally have several options:

Tow & crush. If your car has been wrecked, doesn’t run, or is just old and beat up, you may be stuck with calling a junkyard and accepting $50 for them to pick up your car and crush it for scrap.
Trade it in. This is probably the least hassle, but–other than #1–doesn’t pay well. Dealerships are willing to pay something under what they will get at a wholesale auction, which is quite a bit less than the blue book value.
Sell it yourself. Now you’re thinking, “He’s going to buy my car! Oh, bother.” It can be a pain, but it’s also the best way to get a decent price for your wheels.

When you sell your car, there are a few things to keep in mind, much like when you sell something on Craigslist.

Don’t be alone. There are bad people in the world, but they don’t like witnesses. Bad things are much less likely to happen if you have company.
Know your price. Specifically, know three price: your dream price, the price that would make you happy, and the absolute lowest price you are willing to accept. Make sure you figure these numbers out ahead of time. Know what you are comfortable with before it comes time to close the deal.
Check IDs. The buyer is going to want to test-drive your car. That’s fine, but you want to make sure you know who is driving off in your car. “Officer, Sumdood took my car. He was wearing jeans.” That won’t get your car back.
Clean it up. Get the car detailed before you show it to a potential buyer. A sparkling-clean car will almost always bring in a few hundred extra dollars. It’s well worth the expense.

Following this plan should make the sale go as smoothly as possible and bring you the most possible money.

Readers, what have you done to dispose of an old car?

This is a sponsored post written to provide some insight into the world of used car retail.

: Image by ecstaticist via Flickr

If you are a homeowner, you need homeowner’s insurance. Period. Protecting what is mostly likely the biggest investment of your life with a relatively small monthly payment is so important, that, if you disagree, I’m afraid we are so fundamentally opposed on the most basic elements of personal finance that nothing I say will register with you.

If, however, you have homeowner’s insurance, or–through some innocent lapse–need homeowner’s insurance and you just want some more information, welcome!

The basic principle of insurance is simple. You bet against the insurance company that you or your property are going to get hurt. If you’re right, you win whatever your policy limit is. If you’re wrong, the insurance company cleans up with your monthly premium. Insurance is gambling that something bad will happen to you. If you lose, you win!

Now, there are some things about homeowner’s insurance that you may not realize.

1. Homeowner’s insurance will not protect you against a flood. For that you need flood insurance. The easiest way to tell which policy covers water damage is to see if the water touched the ground before your house. An overflowing river, or heavy rain that seeps through the ground and your foundation are both considered flooding. On the other hand, hail breaking your windows and allowing the rain in or a broken pipe are both generally covered by your homeowner’s policy.

Do you need flood insurance? I would say that, if you live on the coast below sea level, you should have flood insurance. If you’re on a flood plain, you need flood insurance. If you’re not sure, use the handy tool at http://www.floodsmart.gov to rate your risk and get an estimate on premium costs. My home is in moderate-to-low risk of flooding, so full coverage starts at $120.

2. You can negotiate an insurance claim. When you have an insurance adjuster inspecting your home after you file a claim, most of the time they will lowball you. Generous adjusters don’t get brought in for the next round of claims. If you know the replacement costs are higher than they are offering, or even if you aren’t sure, don’t sign! Once you sign, you are locked into a contract with the insurance company. Take your time and do your research. Get a contractor out to give you a damage estimate, if you can.

3. Your deductible is too low. If you’ve built up an emergency fund, you can safely boost your deductible to a sizable percentage of that fund and save yourself a bunch of money. When we got our emergency fund up to about $2000, we raised our deductible from $500 to $1000 and saved a couple of hundred dollars per year. That change pays for itself every 2 years we don’t have a claim. I absolutely wouldn’t recommend this if you don’t have the money to cover your deductible, but, if you do, it can be a great money-saver.

Bonus tip: If you get angry that your homeowner’s insurance doesn’t cover flooding, even if you haven’t had to deal with a flood, and you cancel your insurance out of spite, and you subsequently have a ton of hail damage, your insurance company won’t cover the crap that happened during the window where you weren’t their customer.

Are you one of the misguided masses who prefer to trust their home to fate?

Do you have an insurance horror story?