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Magical Thinking
A few weeks ago, on my way to work, while merging onto the highway, a soccer mommy in an SUV decided that she was going to accelerate to fill the opening I was going to use. Not before I got there, which would have left her in the right, if still a jerk, but as I was moving into the lane.
The entire reasoning was that she could be rude and dangerous under the assumption that I would be more civilized and back down, allowing her to indulge her little fantasy about how the world works. Luckily I saw her speed up, and had time to move out of the way. Physics very nearly taught her an expensive lesson.
This is similar to the people who think they’ll be safe because “nothing has happened before” or think “He won’t hurt me because I;m a good person” when confronted with a mugger.
This is magical thinking. Basing assumptions of other people’s actions on nothing more than your personal hopes and biases. The truth is, your halo does not provide a shield. Your luck at dodging criminals while strolling through bad neighborhoods does not circumvent statistical likelihood and your jerkface attempt to run me into a guard rail had better be backed by the stones to deal with a wreck.
Magical thinking, wishful thinking, and baseless hope are not rational methods of running your life. Criminals hunt for victims who wrap themselves in a smug, yet naïve, superiority. Murphy’s Law is waiting for someone arrogant enough to think that the laws of physics don’t apply when you’re commuting. The only rational means of predicting the behavior of others is to look at the signals they are actually producing.
Someone tentatively trying to squeeze into an opening in traffic is far more likely to submit to your passive aggression than the guy who merges with a turn signal and the gas pedal.
Someone in the park after hours in a hoody is more likely to hurt you than the guy in running shorts.
The guy lurking in the shadows of the parking ramp, refusing to make eye contact is a more likely mugger than the suit trying to find his Lexus.
A million years of evolution have given us an incredible ability to detect danger. A few hundred years of relative peace at the end of a few thousand years of relative civilization have not erased that ability, it has just convinced us to ignore our instincts under the mistaken assumption that all predators live in the jungle.
Fear has survival value. Don’t allow your rational brain to override your lizard brain completely. Let your fear keep you safe.
Net Worth Update
Now that my taxes are done and paid for, I thought it would be nice to update my net worth.
In January, I had:
Assets
- House: $252,900
- Cars: $20,789
- Checking accounts: $3,220
- Savings accounts: $6,254
- CDs: $1,105
- IRAs: $12,001
- Investment Accounts: $1,155
- Total: $297,424
Liabilities
- Mortgage: $29,982
- Credit card: $18,725
- Total: $48,707
Overall: $249,717.00
Here is my current status:
Assets
- House: $240,100 (-12,800) Estimated market value according to the county tax assessor. This will be going down in a few months when the estimates are finalized for the year. I don’t care much about this number. We’re not moving any time soon, so the lower the value, the lower the tax assessment.
- Cars: $15,857 (-4,932) Kelly Blue Book suggested retail value for both of our vehicles and my motorcycle.
- Checking accounts: $4,817 (+1,597) I have accounts spread across three banks. I don’t keep much operating cash here, so this fluctuates based on how far away my next paycheck is.
- Savings accounts: $6,418 (+164) I have savings accounts spread across a few banks. This does not include my kids’ accounts, even though they are in my name. This includes every savings goal I have at the moment. I swept a chunk of this into an IRA to lower my tax bill, which is also why my IRA balance is up as much as it is.
- CDs: $1,107 (+2) I consider this a part of my emergency fund.
- IRAs: $16,398 (+4,397) I have finally started to contribute automatically. It’s only $200 at the moment, but it’s something.
- Investment Accounts: $308 (-847) I pulled most of this out and threw it at a credit card.
- Total: $285,005 (-12,419)
Liabilities
- Mortgage: $28,162 (-1,820)
- Credit card: $16,038 (-2,687) This is the current target of my debt snowball. This has actually grown a bit over the last week. I did a balance transfer that cost $400, but it gives me 0% for a year, versus the 9% I was paying. That will pay for itself in 3 months, while simplifying my payments a bit and saving me almost a thousand dollars in payments this year.
- Total: $44,200 (-4,507)
Overall: $240,805 (-8,912)
Well, I lost some net worth over the last quarter, but it’s still a good report. If I disregard the change in value of my house and cars–two thing I have no control over–my overall total would have gone up almost $9,000.
All in all, it’s been a good year for me, so far, though paying off that credit card by fall is going to be a challenge.
Iggy Azalea – Ghost Writer or Artist? Will it affect her bottom line?
There has been a lot of controversy surrounding Iggy Azalea. Some of it has to do with her appearance and some of it has to do with her lyrics. There have been rumors in the rap industry that Iggy uses a ghost writer.
Specifically, the accusation that her mentor T.I. has ghost wrote many of her songs. But does it matter?
Many people in the rap industry have ghostwriters. Kanye West started out as a ghostwriter. He wrote lyrics and music for many big stars. Neo is another artist that started out as a ghostwriter. This shows that there it’s not unusual. Dr.Dre has spoken about hiring people to write his songs. Ghostwriting is very popular in the Hip Hop community. Many of the most popular artists got their start writing lyrics or music for other singers. The only time it enters into the conversation is when artists get into feuds.
The newest accusation against Iggy comes from fellow female rapper Nicki Minaj. Nicki won an award at the BET awards and when she was accepting the award she insinuated that Iggy does not write her own material. This is publicity and will only help both rappers. Nicki is the top female rapper and she is taking notice of Iggy. It’s common in the Hip Hop world for competitors to get into public arguments. This dates back to the old East Coat v.s. West Coast rap feud. The good thing about this controversy is that neither Nicki or Iggy are gangster rappers so there won’t be any violence. Some rappers like The Game and 50 Cent and Nas and Jay Z used these feuds to become superstars.
This sort of controversy won’t hurt Iggy Azelea. Take Beyonce as an example of a successful artist who uses ghostwriters. No one cares that Beyonce doesn’t write her own songs. All people care about is if the song is good. As long as Iggy and her producers keep choosing good songs and making good music, then she is going to sell records. Her feud with Nicki is only going to add to her popularity. This type of feud helped other rappers such as Nas, JayZ, Eminem, and 50 Cent.
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Real Estate Customer Life Cycle
Recently, my wife and I have been searching for new tenants for our rental property. That’s an irritating customer cycle. We’ve had more no-shows at the showings than we’ve had prospects show up. Most people who call seem to think that the rent on a 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom house with a big yard and a 3 car garage 5 minutes from downtown Minneapolis is going to match their little subsidized Section 8 apartment.
Not going to happen.
So we keep looking. In the meantime, it’s interesting to look at how a real estate trainer breaks down the life cycle of a customer.
Enjoy!
NEC Online Degrees
Crying is for Winners
Have you ever seen a kid come off a wrestling mat, crying his eyes out because he lost?
Often, that kid will get told to be tough and stop crying.
That’s wrong.
I’m not opposed to teaching kids not to cry under most circumstances, but just after an intense competition, I love it. It’s the best possible sign that the kids was pouring his soul into winning. It means he was trying with everything he had.
It means he is–or will be–a winner.
When a kid, particularly a boy in a tough sport, is crying, you know he’s going to try harder and do better next time.
For all of the “tough guy” ability it takes to succeed as a wrestler, I’ve never seen another wrestler teasing the crier. They’ve all been there. Wrestling is a team sport, but you win or lose a match on your own. When you step out in front of hundreds of people and spend 3 to 6 minutes giving every ounce of everything you have to give, only to find it’s not good enough, you’ll often find you don’t have the final reserve necessary to control your emotions.
This is different than a kid crying because he lost a game, just because he lost. Some kids feel entitled to win anything they do, regardless of the effort they put it. That’s also wrong.
Crying at a loss is okay after putting in maximum effort and full energy, not because the dice went the wrong way.
