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Counting Cards: How to Cheat At Blackjack
I don’t gamble much. I’ve got this boring kind of luck that let’s me gamble for a really long time on not much money, without ever winning big.
For example, when my wife was very pregnant with our first monster, we took a trip to visit my parents. It’s a 2 hour drive, and she needed a break halfway there. In the truck stop, we bought $5 worth of scratch-offs to pass some time. We turned in the winning tickets for more scratch-offs. And again. And again. Two hours later, we were out of winners, but had never accumulated more than $10.
Another time, we went to the casino to play slots. It took nearly 8 hours to spend $20. That sounds boring, but we had good conversation while we were playing.
I’ve never had a big win or a big loss from gambling, so I’ve always been kind of bored with the idea.
Now, cheating at blackjack, that’s a different matter. Pulling one over on the casino without getting caught…they make movies about that kind of stuff.
To be clear: counting cards in your head isn’t cheating. Legally, the worst that can happen is you can be asked to leave. To get a Hollywood-I-cheated-the-casino-and-got-caught-and-beat-by-the-mob kind of beating, you need to win a lot.
A lot.
To get started, there are a few things you need to know. One of those things is how to play blackjack, but I’m not going to get into the basics. If you don’t know how to hit, stand, or count to 21 without taking your clothes off, this guide may be too advanced for you. Come back later.
Super Basic Strategy
You don’t need to count cards to use this strategy. You will do better than most players if you follow along.
1. The dealer must hit, or take another card, if he has 16 points. If he has 17, he stands.
2. The hole card–the card you can’t see–is always worth 10. Of course, it’s not, but for the purposes of your strategy, assume it is.
That means, when the dealer is showing a 2, you’ll assume he’s got 12 points and will hit. If he’s showing a 7, you’ll assume he’s going to stand. If he’s showing an 8, your goal is to beat 18, not push for 21.
That’s it. If you do that, you’ll come within a couple of points of even odds against the house. Google “blackjack basic strategy” if you want to improve this.
Even odds isn’t good enough.
Card Counting
Counting cards sounds tough. Rain Man tough.
It’s not, but you’ll want to practice at home a bit before you try it in the really real world.
The rules are simple:
1. Cards 2-6 are worth 1 point.
2. The 10, jack, queen, king, and ace are worth -1.
3. For every card that is played, keep track of that score. This is a running score across multiple hands until the deck is replaced or shuffled, so don’t stop at a new deal.
4. Divide the running score by the number of decks remaining in the shoe. If there are approximated 150 cards in the dealer-thingy, that’s 3 decks, so divide by 3. If your running score is 18, that means the number your playing against is 6. If the casino is using a continuous-shuffling thingy, forget counting the cards.
That’s it. You’re never adding or subtracting more than a one, and you’re doing that against a number that tends to stay pretty low.
How do you use that, you ask? Easy.
When the score is up, bet higher. If it’s low or negative, bet lower. The higher the number, the higher your bets. If you’ve got a 5, a 6, or more, bet as much as you are comfortable with. If your playing score is low or negative, bet close to the table minimum.
Why does this work?
A higher score indicates that the main assumption of the super basic strategy is more likely to be true. When you’ve got a score of 10, you know a lot of lower-value cards have already hit the table, so it’s safer to assume that the dealer’s card is worth 10.
You don’t change anything about the way you play each hand, you just change the way you bet each hand. Counting cards doesn’t tell you specifically what’s going to happen during each hand, it just tackles the statistics of the game. It moves the odds in your favor, by up to 2 or 3 percent. Over one hand, this won’t help, so don’t sweat losing a hand here and there. Over an entire shoe of hands, you should be able to steadily win more than you lose.
And, as Brian Brushwood says, in the course of your life, very few things make a cooler story than getting kicked out of a casino for counting cards.
Do you play in casinos? Ever tried to cheat?
Hacked
LRN got hacked this morning. Thankfully, I backup weekly and subscribe to my own RSS feed. 20 minutes to total restoration.
Welcome to Unemployment
Last week, I was let go from my job. The reasons are unimportant.
http://gty.im/167334756
So now, I am unemployed right before Christmas.
And my renters are moving out at the end of the month.
Normally, this should be a time for panic, but strangely, it’s not.
It actually came with a feeling of relief. Again, the reasons are unimportant.
But still, my predictable income has suddenly become unpredictable.
It is times like this that I’m glad I’ve spent the last 5 years crushing my debt. I currently have about $1000 on a credit card from my monthly expenses and around $10,000 on my mortgage.
That’s it. There’s no soul-destroying credit card debt. No car payment.
Trimming down to the not-painful-but-not-barebones basics puts my monthly nut at $3300. Leaving a bit of comfort and savings in place, that jumps to $4000.
Our income from my wife’s job and the renter in our home comes to about $1600 per month. That’s $1700 per month that we’re off from the basics and $2400 we’re off from a comfortable level.
However, I expect to have our rental house rented by the end of the year. There are some repairs we have to make after the current tenants leave. That will bring in a minimum of $1200 per month, hopefully $1500. That closes the gap to $500-1200.
Now, aside from the biggest benefit of killing out debt(no monthly payments!), we’ve also been saving about 20% of our income outside of our retirement accounts. We have enough to bridge that gap for 25-60 months. Unemployment will also provide enough to cover the difference for about 6 months. That means without doing any side work…sitting on my butt playing video games…I could cover my bill comfortably for two and a half years. If I cut down to bare minimum expenses, I can stretch that to nearly 7 years.
That’s why I don’t drive a new car or wear expensive clothes. That’s why I don’t vacation on my credit cards. That’s why my kids don’t have the latest, greatest video game systems and we don’t have a big screen TV.
It’s because we chose to prioritize our financial security over pure luxuries. We chose to sacrifice optional things now so we wouldn’t have to sacrifice things like food if life took a surprise turn down a bad road.
Now, before anybody reads this and understands it as “Jason’s taking a decade off”, in the week I’ve been unemployed, I’ve had 2 phone interviews, and a request for another. One of those has turned into a tentative job offer already. I expect to remain unemployed for less than a month.
The High Cost of Keeping Richard Ramirez in Prison
Serial killers in the United States often gain cult status due to their strange courtroom antics and dramatic personalities. Recently deceased death row inmate Richard Ramirez was definitely one of the most famous serial killers of all time before he passed away of liver failure in California’s San Quentin State Prison.
After a dramatic arrest in 1985 in East Los Angeles by residents who recognized Ramirez from photographs displayed all over the news, Ramirez would sit in jail for years while awaiting a trial that finally began in 1989. There would be no more expensive trial in the history of Los Angeles County except for the O.J. Simpson trial that occurred a few years later.
At a cost of $1.8 million dollars, Los Angelinos would pay dearly for the privilege of trying Ramirez in a court of law. Incredibly, however, this massive sum wasn’t the only cost associated with this vicious serial killer. Because he was sentenced to death and due to the incredibly long appeals process associated with death row inmates, Ramirez sat in jail for over two decades without any fear of actually being put to death by the state of California.
Over the past hundred years, the number of individuals incarcerated in the United States has ballooned from a few hundred thousand people to almost 2.5 million prisoners. The most expensive people to incarcerate are death row inmates, who sit in a type of solitary confinement for decades. A moratorium on future executions in California has ensured that inmates like Ramirez have been costing taxpayers millions of dollars for housing and appeals with no likelihood of being put to death.
According to the American Civil Liberties Union, there are around 700 people sitting on death row in California, which require a massive investment of tax dollars. The state’s ongoing budget crisis and inability to balance its budget has put great strain on the prison system to house so many death row inmates at such an incredible cost.
Richard Ramirez’s untimely death at the age of 53 and his decades-long residency within a state prison brings to light a disturbing fact: more inmates die of natural causes while on death row than are actually put to death. Whether support for the death penalty exists or not, the billions of dollars spent by the state to keep inmates on death row has resulted in just 13 executions since the late 1970s.
A study in 2011 that was conducted by a judge and professor in the state suggested that California has spent over $4 billion since the death penalty was reinstituted. Out of those funds spent, at least a billion dollars was used for housing and incarceration of the inmates, including serial killers like Richard Ramirez.
A further study presented by the Commission on the Fair Administration of Justice in 2008 suggested that keeping the system intact with inmates on death row would cost around $137 million dollars a year. On the other hand, if California was to commute those death sentences to life in prison and abolish the death penalty, the yearly cost would drop to $11.5 million a year.
Offering the families of victims of death penalty-worthy crimes the chance to see a killer or other criminal experience the ultimate punishment may offer some sort of closure. Unfortunately, with the expectation that individuals on death row are more likely to die of natural causes than be put to death in California, the implementation of the death penalty in the state must be reexamined.
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