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Daytrading Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

For the past 6 weeks, I’ve been playing with Bitcoin and Litecoin.

The bitcoin logo
The bitcoin logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I can hear you from across the internet.   You’re asking, “What the hell is Bitcoin?”

I’m glad you asked.  It’s a cryptocurrency.

And now you know as much as you did before.

Cryptocurrencies are anonymous internet-based money.   You spend it just like money, though granted, there are fewer places that accept cryptocurrency.

The big name in cryptocurrency is Bitcoin.   In second place, trying to play silver to Bitcoin’s gold, is Litecoin.

So what do I mean by “playing with” Bitcoin and Litecoin?

I’ve been daytrading, which is generally a horrible idea…when you’re doing it with stocks.   Daytrading is gambling.  It’s the art of doing short-term flips on a stock.  You buy it today to sell tomorrow, hoping it goes up.   With stocks, I play a long game.  I buy and hold.   I buy a stock that I believe has long-term value, and I hold it for months or years.

That’s not the game I play with BTC and LTC.    I play a short game, rarely longer than a week.  When the coins are at a low price, I buy, then I immediately sell when they price is higher.   When it’s high, I short the coin, essentially selling coins I don’t own to trade back when the dollar-price is lower.   When I’m paying attention, I make money as the coins go up and I make money when the coins go down.

Why is this a good strategy for cryptocoins?

Because they are extremely volatile.   As I’m writing this, Litecoin has had a 10% swing today, from $4.03 at midnight, to a current price of $4.16, with a peak of $4.36.  On Thursday, it was floating around $4.60 all day.   In the last 30 days, it’s been as high as $8.65 and as low as $3.18.  Go back to May and the low is $1.29.

Traditional wisdom says that volatile investments are bad.   In traditional investments, that’s true.  But when a stock is this volatile, nearly every bet is a good one, as long as you’re patient.   If I buy LTC at $4.20 and it drops to $3.90, that’s bad.  I lost money.   But, if I wait a couple of days, it’s almost definitely going to climb back up.   Except for large-scale sell-offs, it’s usually going to bounce 10% in a given day.     You can buy in the dips and sell at the peaks all day long, turning 5-10% profits with each time.   If you’re brave or stupid, you can short at the peaks and make 5-10% on every downturn, too.

For example, today started at $4.03.  Buy.  Today’s peak was at 7:15AM at $4.36.   When the graphs start swinging down, sell short.   Two hours later, it bottomed out at $4.20 for a 4% return.   Then, buy while it’s low.  Ninety minutes later, it was at $4.31, another 3% return.  Short it again, then close the position at 7PM for $4.13.

Let’s walk through this.

Buy $10 worth of Litecoin at midnight, sell at 7:15AM.    You have $10.81.

Turn around and short the same amount until 9AM.   You have $11.22.

Buy that same amount to sell at 10:30AM.   You have $11.51.

Short it again before closing out at 7PM and going to bed.  You have 12.01.   That’s almost a 12% return in 12 hours, assuming you guessed all of the major swings right.  If you guessed some wrong, you’d just have to wait until the next time it swung your way, and it will.   Did I do that well?  No.  I bought in at $4.008 yesterday and sold today-once-for $4.32.   I will not complain at an 8% return over 12 hours.

The only exception to that is during major buying and selling streaks.  On July 5th, a major buying run started.  By July 8th, the price was run up to $8.65.   A huge sell-off happened then, dropping the price to $4.36 on July 9th.

If you bought at $8.65 you’d be hosed.

The lesson there is, don’t buy at the peak.   I’ve had a number of trades that could have been huge scores if I would have held onto them longer, but I’m a wimp.   I sell as soon as I’ve gotten enough money to make me smile, then I refuse to regret the decision.   That also prevents me from holding on to my positions too long.  I avoid all of the crashes that way.  That giant buy-in happened while I was on vacation, so I wasn’t paying attention.  When I’m not paying attention, I leave my money in US dollars, so there’s no risk…and also no reward.

Also, an important caveat:  while I am learning the cryptocurrency ropes, I’m playing with a non-critical amount of money.  I put $75 into the exchange in June.   Not enough to cry over losing, but enough I can play with all of the different investment options.  As I said, I’m a wimp, although a 30% return in 7 weeks is pretty sweet.

Next up, I’ll show you how to get started investing/gambling with Bitcoin.

My Favorite Present

My favorite Christmas present this year was the one I gave to my 13 year old son.

Allow me to walk you through his evening….

First, he opened one of his presents.  It was just a small box, about 3 inches by 4.  A Japanese puzzle box.  Inside the box was a note that read:

Closed off in the smallest room you will find a clue to bring you closer to your prize.

When he checked the cabinet below the sink in our basement bathroom, he found another note that sent him to my business website one a page with a url that contained “the square of my children”.   When he eventually figured out that I meant their ages, not their quantity, he found a clue on my website.

This lead him to a section of his Minecraft server.  It’s effectively a no-man’s land because he and his friends set off a nuke and turned it into a giant pit.   They fall down and die there.   Inside the pit was a cave.  Inside the cave was a clue.  The clue read:

Grandma and Grandpa love you.

What do you do when someone says they love you?  You either get scared of the commitment and end a perfectly good relationship, or you say “I love you, too”.     When the kid finally called his grandparents to tell them he loves them, they told him to give his parents a kiss.

I’m a jerk.

He came over and gave me a hug and a kiss.  I handed him a piece of paper.   When he looked at it, he asked if it was supposed to be torn in half.  I reminded him that he has two parents, so Mom got a hug and a kiss, too.   The resulting clue read:

The Answer to the Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything

Naturally, this points to The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, but the boy hadn’t read far enough into the book to understand the reference, so he had to hit google.    After spending time looking for chapter 42, he finally thought to look at page 42, which had this clue:

My Little Pegasus

Two steps to the right

Two steps forward

Two steps up

This clue started at the My Little Pony I set next to a Pegasus in my daughters’ room.   The boy was in dense mode because he had to ask his sister what a Pegasus was.  She also had to suggest he open the closet door when one step forward made him bump his nose on it.

For all of that work, he got the Ticket to Ride game.  He laughed the entire way through the treasure hunt, then decided he hated the whole process.  However, for two nights running, he’s stopped the video games to play his new game with his family.

It’s a present he’ll remember forever.

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Unlicensed Health “Insurance”

Gibraltar monkey
Image by Salim Virji via Flickr

Health insurance is–without a doubt–expensive.

As much as I hate the idea of socialized health care, it does have one shiny selling point to counter its absolute immorality: it’s cheap.  Assuming, of course, you ignore the higher taxes and skewed supply/demand balance.

Here in the US, we’re free from that burdensome contrivance.  Instead, we have health care and health insurance industries that are heavily regulated and ultimately run by people who have A) never held a job outside of government or academia, and B) have no idea how to run either a hospital or a business.  That works so much better.    Some days, I think our health system would be better run by giving syringes and band-aids to drunken monkeys.   The high-level decision making wouldn’t be worse.

Thanks to that mess and the high unemployment rate that somehow hasn’t been remedied by the 27 bazillion imaginary jobs that have been save or created in the last 2 years, some people are hurting.    Not the poor.  We have so many “safety net” programs that the poor are covered.  I’m talking about the “too rich to be considered poor, but too poor to be comfortable”, the middle class.

If are much above the poverty line, you will stop qualifying for some of the affordable programs.  The higher above the line you go, the less you qualify for.  That makes sense, but the fact that we have so many safety net programs means there is a lot of demand created by all of the people who are getting their health care “free”.

That drives the prices up for the people who actually have to pay for their own care.  Yes, even if you have an employer-sponsored plan, you are paying for the health insurance.   That insurance is a benefit that is a part of your total compensation.  If employers weren’t paying that, they could afford higher wages.

As the price goes up, employers are moving to a high-deductible plans, which puts a squeeze on the employees’ budgets.   Employees–you and I, the people who actually have to pay these bills–are looking for ways to save money on the care, so they can actually afford to see a doctor.

In response to that squeeze, some unscrupulous people(#$%#@%! scammers) are capitalizing on the financial pain and selling “health discount plans” which promise extensive discounts for a cheap membership fee.   These plans are not insurance.   In a best-case scenario, the discount plans will get you a small discount from a tiny network of doctors and clinics.  Prescription drug plans are no better.  You may get a 60% discount, but only if you use a back-alley pharmacy in Nome, Alaska between the hours of 8 AM and 8:15 AM on January 32nd of odd leap years.

How can you tell it’s a scam?

The scammers will try to sell you on false scarcity. They’ll say the plan is filling up fast and you have to buy now if you want to get in on it.   For all major purchases, if you aren’t going to be allowed time to research your options, assume it’s a scam.  Good deals won’t evaporate.

They aren’t licensed. Call the Department of Commerce for your state and see if the company is a licensed insurance provider.  Pro tip: they aren’t.

They don’t want you to read the plan until after you’ve paid.   That’s a flashing, screaming, electro-shock warning sign for anything.  Once you’ve given them your money, your options are reduced.

The price is amazingly low.  Of course it is.  They aren’t actually providing any services, so their overhead is nonexistent.  They only have to pay for gas to get to the bank to cash your checks.

Really, the best way to judge if something is a scam is to go with your gut. Does it feel like a scam?  Do you feel like you’re getting away with something? Does it sound too good to be true?

To recap: health care/prescription discount plans = bad juju.

 

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