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Daytrading Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

For the past 6 weeks, I’ve been playing with Bitcoin and Litecoin.

The bitcoin logo
The bitcoin logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I can hear you from across the internet.   You’re asking, “What the hell is Bitcoin?”

I’m glad you asked.  It’s a cryptocurrency.

And now you know as much as you did before.

Cryptocurrencies are anonymous internet-based money.   You spend it just like money, though granted, there are fewer places that accept cryptocurrency.

The big name in cryptocurrency is Bitcoin.   In second place, trying to play silver to Bitcoin’s gold, is Litecoin.

So what do I mean by “playing with” Bitcoin and Litecoin?

I’ve been daytrading, which is generally a horrible idea…when you’re doing it with stocks.   Daytrading is gambling.  It’s the art of doing short-term flips on a stock.  You buy it today to sell tomorrow, hoping it goes up.   With stocks, I play a long game.  I buy and hold.   I buy a stock that I believe has long-term value, and I hold it for months or years.

That’s not the game I play with BTC and LTC.    I play a short game, rarely longer than a week.  When the coins are at a low price, I buy, then I immediately sell when they price is higher.   When it’s high, I short the coin, essentially selling coins I don’t own to trade back when the dollar-price is lower.   When I’m paying attention, I make money as the coins go up and I make money when the coins go down.

Why is this a good strategy for cryptocoins?

Because they are extremely volatile.   As I’m writing this, Litecoin has had a 10% swing today, from $4.03 at midnight, to a current price of $4.16, with a peak of $4.36.  On Thursday, it was floating around $4.60 all day.   In the last 30 days, it’s been as high as $8.65 and as low as $3.18.  Go back to May and the low is $1.29.

Traditional wisdom says that volatile investments are bad.   In traditional investments, that’s true.  But when a stock is this volatile, nearly every bet is a good one, as long as you’re patient.   If I buy LTC at $4.20 and it drops to $3.90, that’s bad.  I lost money.   But, if I wait a couple of days, it’s almost definitely going to climb back up.   Except for large-scale sell-offs, it’s usually going to bounce 10% in a given day.     You can buy in the dips and sell at the peaks all day long, turning 5-10% profits with each time.   If you’re brave or stupid, you can short at the peaks and make 5-10% on every downturn, too.

For example, today started at $4.03.  Buy.  Today’s peak was at 7:15AM at $4.36.   When the graphs start swinging down, sell short.   Two hours later, it bottomed out at $4.20 for a 4% return.   Then, buy while it’s low.  Ninety minutes later, it was at $4.31, another 3% return.  Short it again, then close the position at 7PM for $4.13.

Let’s walk through this.

Buy $10 worth of Litecoin at midnight, sell at 7:15AM.    You have $10.81.

Turn around and short the same amount until 9AM.   You have $11.22.

Buy that same amount to sell at 10:30AM.   You have $11.51.

Short it again before closing out at 7PM and going to bed.  You have 12.01.   That’s almost a 12% return in 12 hours, assuming you guessed all of the major swings right.  If you guessed some wrong, you’d just have to wait until the next time it swung your way, and it will.   Did I do that well?  No.  I bought in at $4.008 yesterday and sold today-once-for $4.32.   I will not complain at an 8% return over 12 hours.

The only exception to that is during major buying and selling streaks.  On July 5th, a major buying run started.  By July 8th, the price was run up to $8.65.   A huge sell-off happened then, dropping the price to $4.36 on July 9th.

If you bought at $8.65 you’d be hosed.

The lesson there is, don’t buy at the peak.   I’ve had a number of trades that could have been huge scores if I would have held onto them longer, but I’m a wimp.   I sell as soon as I’ve gotten enough money to make me smile, then I refuse to regret the decision.   That also prevents me from holding on to my positions too long.  I avoid all of the crashes that way.  That giant buy-in happened while I was on vacation, so I wasn’t paying attention.  When I’m not paying attention, I leave my money in US dollars, so there’s no risk…and also no reward.

Also, an important caveat:  while I am learning the cryptocurrency ropes, I’m playing with a non-critical amount of money.  I put $75 into the exchange in June.   Not enough to cry over losing, but enough I can play with all of the different investment options.  As I said, I’m a wimp, although a 30% return in 7 weeks is pretty sweet.

Next up, I’ll show you how to get started investing/gambling with Bitcoin.

Avoid Getting Ripped Off On Ebay

My son, at 10 years old,  is a deal-finder.   His first question when he finds something he wants is “How much?”, followed closely by “Can I find it cheaper?”   I haven’t–and won’t–introduced him to Craigslist, but he knows to check Amazon and eBay for deals.   We’ve been working together to make sure he understands everything he is looking at on eBay, and what he needs to check before he even thinks about asking if he can get it.

Pricing
Pricing

The first thing I have him check is the price.  This is a fast check, and if it doesn’t pass this test, the rest of the checks do not matter.   If the price isn’t very competitive, we move on.  There are always risks involved with buying online, so I want him to mitigate those risks as much as possible.   Pricing can also be easily scanned after you search for an item.

The next thing to check is the shipping cost.  I don’t know how many times I’ve seen “Low starting price, no reserve!” in the description only to find a $40 shipping and handling fee on a 2 ounce item.  The price is the price + shipping.

Feedback
Feedback

Next, we look at the seller’s feedback.   The feedback rating has a couple of pieces to examine.   First, what is the raw score?  If it’s under 100, it needs to be examined closer.   Is it all buyer feedback?  Has the seller sold many items?   Is everything from the last few weeks?   People just getting into selling sometimes get in over their heads.  Other people are pumping up their ratings until they have a lot of items waiting to ship, then disappear with the money.   Second, what is the percent positive?  Under 95% will never get a sale from me. For ratings between 95% and 97%, I will examine the history.   Do they respond to negative feedback?  Are the ratings legit?  Did they get negative feedback because a buyer was stupid or unrealistic?   Did they misjudge their time and sell more items than they could ship in a reasonable time?  If that’s the case, did they make good on the auctions?   How many items are they selling at this second?

[ad name=”inlineright”] After that, we look at the payment options.   If the seller only accepts money orders or Western Union, we move on.  Those are scam auctions.   Sellers, if you’ve been burned and are scared to get burned again, I’m sorry, but if you only accept the scam payment options, I will consider you a scammer and move on.

Finally, we look at the description.   If it doesn’t come with everything needed to use the item(missing power cord, etc.), I want to know.   If it doesn’t explicitly state the item is in working condition, the seller will get asked about the condition before we buy.  We also look closely to make sure it’s not a “report” or even just a picture of the item.

Following all of those steps, it’s hard to get ripped off. On the rare occasion that the legitimate sellers I’ve dealt with decide to suddenly turn into ripoff-artists, I’ve turned on the Supreme-Ninja Google-Fu, combined with some skip-tracing talent, and convinced them that it’s easier to refund my money than explain to their boss why they’ve been posting on the “Mopeds & Latex” fetish sites while at work.    Asking Mommy to pretty-please pass a message about fraud seems to be a working tactic, too.  It’s amazing how many people forget that the lines between internet and real life are blurring more, every day.

If sending them a message on every forum they use and every blog they own under several email addresses doesn’t work and getting the real-life people they deal with to pass messages also doesn’t work, I’ll call Paypal and my credit card company to dispute the charges.   I only use a credit card online.   I never do a checking account transfer through Paypal.  I like to have all of the possible options available to me.

My kids are being raised to avoid scams wherever possible. Hopefully, I can teach them to balance the line between skeptical and cynical better than I do.